Reading more, beyond the bottom line...
What the Analysts Expected (i.e., "Analyst Estimates"): Another interesting dynamic in this quarterly reporting process is that the analysts who cover the stock may think they know much more - beyond what the company has indicated - about what it will make for that quarter. Therefore, before their quarterly report (actual results) are officially announced, analysts will provide their own projections, up or down, based on the changing market or industry environment in that quarterly period, or based on factors that they think positively or negatively affected that company during that time. For example, while the company may have stated they would make $0.14 cents per share, the analysts may believe that they exceeded these estimates due to much stronger sales, and therefore they make the claim that they believe the company will make $0.17 a share. Taking the average of all the analysts' estimates who cover the stock, becomes the "analysts expectations," or target EPS, for the stock. This could be bad for a company that was right in line, reporting $0.14 cents a share, as they said they would. Because they may have met their predicted EPS, but they "missed analyst estimates" by $0.03 cents. Again, in this situation, the stock price could go down as a perceived "earnings disappointment" on Wall Street (even though they did what they stated they would do the previous quarter).
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What the heck are all those "8-Ks?"... Looking at the image above for Intel, they submitted a heck of a lot of Form 8-Ks in that list. "In the interest of full disclosure..." That's what the 8-K report is all about. It is typically used as a universal form to submit notices to the SEC (and the public) of all changes that occur at the company. For example, every time they hire or appoint a new Officer or Board Member for the company, they will submit this Form 8-K to the SEC to alert them of these changes in their leadership.
And, did you ever wish you had a "decoder ring" for all those SEC Form numbers?... Well we found that for you on the SEC's website, and provided a link for you here >
Just go to each form, click the Form name, and then read the first section, "A. Rule as to Use of Form __." That will tell you its purpose and why it is used.
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Report Timing: Beyond the actual findings in each Quarterly Report (10-Q) and Yearly Report (10-K) it is important to know when your stock reports by checking their reporting history. We looked at the SEC filing dates in the past for Intel, and found. You should record this in your workbook to prepare for what you think your company is going to report. [link to this information - here >]
10-K - 1st Quarter Earnings Report Findings: Intel reported a record 1st Quarter, as follows:
Revenue $10.3 Billion
Gross Margin 63%
Operating Income $3.4 Billion
Net Income $2.4 Billion
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $0.43 Cents [Summary taken from 8-K, Exhibit 99.1, submitted 4/13/10 - link here >]
Okay, but what did the analysts think?: Intel reported a record 1st Quarter, as follows:
To find out, we simply went to Google, clicked on the News link at the top, then searched for "Intel 1Q" - link here >
Generally, we believe that The Wall Street Journal and the AP and Reuters are reliable to report objectively, without their opinions injected.
Here's what we found, checking these news sites (again, searching "Intel 1Q"):
Wall Street Journal: "The company said revenue rose 44% from last year's dismal first quarter. But perhaps more impressive was the chip maker's sales of chips for PCs, which remained flat with the last quarter of 2009. Traditionally, sales fall off in the first quarter following the holiday shopping season."
Associated Press (AP): "Intel Corp. executives say the chip maker's first-quarter results revealed a surprising and encouraging trend: Companies are finally starting to upgrade their workers' laptops. That's important because corporate spending on personal computers has been one of the last parts of the technology world to thaw out as companies unlock budgets frozen during the recession. Intel became the first major technology company to report earnings for the first quarter when it said after the market closed Tuesday that it earned $2.4 billion, or 43 cents per share, in the first three months of 2009. Analysts polled by Thomson Reuters were expecting profit of 38 cents per share."
Ahh, we found out that Intel beat analysts' estimates by $0.05 cents, according to the Thomson Reuters poll.
Reuters: "Intel Corp's sales and margin forecasts trounced Wall Street expectations and the stellar showing from the world's top chip maker, an industry bellwether and among the first tech stocks to report first-quarter earnings, lifted Asian tech shares."
These reports are important, because the big money managers - the funds that can drive the stock up or down - read these articles also. You need to have as much perspective as possible about how the Quarterly Earnings (10-Q) was interpreted. The news articles provide analysts reactions, in that additional perspective.
And, of course, if you are able to watch CNBC, or another business channel, on the day of the earnings announcement, you will benefit from their commentary on what your company reported, and what the general analysts' expectations were, and if the company disappointed or surprised to the upside.
CHANGES: In the image and link above, since 3/19/09, there were 31 forms submitted to the SEC. In addition to the three 10-Qs and the one 2009 10-K submitted, there were 27 Form 8-Ks filed by Intel. Again, these are all about notifying the SEC of "changes" at the company. Here's what we found that stood out:
14-Apr-2010: CFO Commentary on Intel's 1st Quarter, 2010 Results - We found this out by going directly to the referenced Exhibit indicated in the summary. Basically, the CFO provides a topline summary of the 1st Quarter earnings results, but also indicates the 2nd Quarter official "Outlook" for earnings. We thought it was interesting to note their statement:
Depending on the size of Intel's return from investing in Numonyx (whatever that is), this could create an upside surprise in earnings. So that gives us a follow-up item to investigate further. Given its unique name, we would start with a Google search and read on from there. [link to this information - here >]
12-Nov-2009: This is when Intel announced its agreement to settle its outstanding disputes with AMD, and that it would be paying AMD $1.25 billion to settle and drop all pending litigation against Intel. When you click on SUMMARY, you see the following:
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement, Regulation FD Disclosure
[link to this information - here >]
Most of the other 8-Ks submitted were notifications of changes in members of the board of directors for Intel, or further quarterly summary notices from the CFO, etc.
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