Reading more, beyond the bottom line... You need to know the price history of your stock, to better predict it's future potential - from this point and time now - to help you determine if you should buy or sell that stock.
Compare price to competitors: link here > (same as the image below) comparing stock prices on the graph (compares Intel price chart to AMD, TXN and STM)
Compare price/trending to sector and industry: link here >
Compare price to broad indexes like the S&P (^GSPC) and the Nasdaq100 (^IXIC): link here >
Compare price now to its own 52-week range: Same as the Summary View in Step 100, link here >
Compare price now to its all-time range: See how high or low it has gotten beyond just the last year. This may give you an indication of where it could go again, link to "max" chart here >
Follow along with our Stock Homework free convenient workbook to get the most from this site!...
Totally new to stocks? Try starting with our Beginner Area: Stocks101...
Hover over this text to see enlarged image
Click here to try this step now...
Stock Price... that is the question, isn't it? Trying to determine where a stock price is going to go in the future, relative to where it is now. Understanding historical prices for your stock is extremely important, but knowing what the past causes ("market forces") were for those price changes is invaluable. The link above and the other links to the facts is only half the homework necessary to analyzing stock prices. If you see a major spike, as shown for AMD above (i.e., at the end of December, 2009), you can go to AMD's Investor Relations page on their website and try to determine what the news was that probably caused that spike in its share price. Likewise, you can then extrapolate the effect it had on Intel's stock price/performance, as a result.
back to top
Intel's price performance, compared to competitors: From Step 140, we found that Intel's top direct competitors, by Market Cap, are:
Texas Instruments (TXN), Analog Devices (ADI), ST Microelectronics (STM), and AMD (AMD).
Using the link provided above, we can see the chart comparing prices for these competitors, compared to our stock, Intel. To see your stock, first enter its symbol in the main box (next to "GET CHART", then click on the COMPARE button to enter other stock symbols). What we found: Notice the AMD price line... Looking at May of 2009 and 12 months beyond, we see that AMD (and all of the other stocks) mostly traded in the same line, fluctuating in price together. But in November, 2009, something changed for AMD. It broke out from the pack, leaving the others to continue tracking together, and jumping in performance. So what happened to make AMD more successful than the rest, and what does this indicate for Intel? Is it losing share to AMD, or is it simply a laggard (slow to pick up and follow AMD's share price gain) in the group? To find out, we'd probably want to examine the News (Step 340) and the SEC filings (Step 220) around that November, 2009 time period for both Intel and AMD. [link to this information - here >] How do we do that?... > Checking The News Around A Specific Date: Well, checking the news on a particular date is a bit tedious, but important to do. Here's how:
First, go to Yahoo! Finance, enter "AMD" in the box to the left of "GET QUOTES"...
Then click on the left sidebar link, "Headlines." Here's the tedious part: You have to then scroll down to the bottom of the page and continue to click on the "Older Headlines" link until you get to the dates around where the chart indicated that AMD (or your stock) had a significant change (i.e., end of October, 2009), where you want to see the news that occurred at that time. Looking at the chart again, it looks like the AMD price breakout occurred right about November 1st, so we start at October 28th, and we read on from there.
Nov. 2: We find that there was an insider trading controversy surrounding the firm, Galleon, and that former AMD CEO, Hector Ruiz, quit his then-current position as Chairman of Globalfoundaries, a chipmaker acquired by AMD, amid these allegations that he was involved. (Takeaway: Okay, so that could ease AMD investors' minds, and separate AMD from the scandal, but it doesn't seem like enough to propel AMD's stock, so we continue to read on to find out more. Hit your browser's "back" button when you need to see the more recent news headlines)
Nov. 4: Intel faces antitrust charges from New York Attorney General, accusing Intel of coercing PC makers through kickbacks to use its chips and not components from its competitors, primarily AMD. (Takeaway: Hmm. Interesting, but we don't think it's enough to take the stock this much higher. We read on...)
Nov. 4: AMD files its 3rd Quarter, 2009 Earnings Report (SEC 10-Q) indicating reduced operating costs. However, they still reported a loss, and a 22% drop in revenues for the 3rd quarter, compared to the same period year ago. Further, they gave a weaker revenue outlook for the 4th quarter, citing increased competition from Intel. (Takeaway: Don't think that's it. Usually disappointing earnings don't spark stock increases. We want to continue to look at subsequent headlines to see how the analysts interpreted this report).
Nov. 12: AMD and Intel settle legal disputes. Intel agrees to pay AMD $1.25 billion in settlement. (Takeaway: Okay, that's it! After this settlement, AMD soars on huge volume and share price increased 22% in one day! That was the start of their uptrend)
Nov. 13: Upgrade: Standard & Poors upgrades AMD after Intel settlement.
Nov. 16: Upgrade: Moody's raises AMD credit rating.
Nov. 19: Upgrade: Broadpoint upgrades AMD from "Neutral" to "Buy." (Note: Direct Link to upgrades and downgrades here >)
Here is a great trick! If you click through "past headlines" to a particular date, and then you'd like to see the same time period for news headlines for a different stock, say Intel - symbol INTC, you can go up to the address bar and simply substitute the stock symbol AMD here: > http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=AMD&t=2009-11-03T09:43:07-05:00&id=35155020 ^ with INTC So it the new address (URL) at the top of your web browser looks like this: > http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=INTC&t=2009-11-03T09:43:07-05:00&id=35155020 and then hit return to see Intel's news headlines for the same time period. Pretty neat!
> Checking The SEC Filings Around A Specific Date: We already determined that the 3rd Quarter 10-Q was disappointing, and that it did not propel the stock higher. However, you can find all SEC filings on Yahoo! Finance's left sidebar link, SEC Filings, or (for more attractive, easier-to-read documents, go to the company's Investor Relations page on their website to read these reports. [link to this information - Intel example - here >]
The Bottom Line findings: Around the start of November, 2009, it was the settlement by Intel, paying AMD $1.25 billion, that propelled AMD's stock to surge and break out from their competitors.
Intel's price performance, compared to the S&P and the Nasdaq: Here we see a chat indicating that Intel trades closely, and pretty much in line, with both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 index. [link to this information - here >]
Intel's price - where it's been in the last year - its 52-week range: This link is important, because four key pricing points: 1. Where Intel's price is today, 2. where it has been the lowest in the last 12 months, 3. what the highest price traded has been and, most importantly, 4. the relative price (today's price) as it relates to both the 52-week high price and low price. Why is this important?... If you see that Intel is trading at or near its 52-week high price, you need to determine if you think it can break through that level, and go much higher. Likewise, if it were at its 52-week low, you need to be careful not to assume it can't go lower. That's why we look at the next part for additional perspective... the all-time range, below... [link to this information - here >]
Intel's price, all-time range: Looking at this chart, you gain additional perspective of where the stock price has been since it was tracked over several years. Checking Intel, we see that it was as low as $0.38 cents (price-adjusted for splits) in 1986, and that it spiked as high as $74.87 in September of 2000. If its current price were around $24 today (very close to its 52-week high), you may feel uncomfortable buying its stock. However, when you consider that it got as high as almost $75 in the past, you may think it could go at least to $50 a share with strong sales and a profitable outlook. So don't always think that only the last 12 months are your best indicator of price potential, up or down. [link to this information - here >]
The next step, Knowing The Number of Shares Outstanding, is also key to understand relative to competitors, as it can be an indicator of the likelihood of future stock secondary offerings which can severely dilute the value of your shares...
More about this in Step 160...
Next Step >>
Now get Jim Cramer's email alerts before he buys or sells for his Charitable Trust... Read more here >>
Additional Resources